Easter Egg Collecting

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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby Scientiafide » Tue Mar 19, 2013 12:43 pm

I'm not sure why people complain about collecting events. Getting extra stuff while playing is always a good thing (no one is requiring you to participate anyway). The only thing I'll say about this matter is that players should be encouraged to play all the time and not just during collecting events. Lvling up is not sufficiently encouraging in most cases. Maybe when the auction house comes out and there's more use for FM that'll change though.
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby gadu » Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:47 pm

Logress wrote:Keep in mind JP had a grinding event every month, and usually had NO CAP on the point cards (unless I begged them to put one) or a prize with an insane requirement, making it a super-grind. However, look at the numbers of folrart, and logins and interest in general over the last month and then this week, I would say that interest in collecting events from the Alteil playerbase as a whole is high.


I don't think it's the collecting event that people like as much as it is being able to pinpoint rare cards (something that is so hard to do in Alteil that it drives people to do miserable things like grind the hell out of more than 50 battles and getting random progress toward your goal). Despite how miserable can be, people endure it because it is probably the best chance to pinpoint a rare card which speaks volumes about the shop system in the game.
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby imortal12233 » Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:10 am

I decided to Run a Monte Carlo test for the egg collection, to see just how bad the situation is.

I ran the test under the assumption that each of the 5 main eggs had a 1/6 chance of being a reward, with remaining 1/6 being a combination of real TB and the point card egg. I used 10000 test runs each time

The program calculated how many wins would be needed (note that each daily lotto counts as ~1.15 wins, so assuming no missed games means ~16 wins worth of eggs). Numbers below do not include it, but this is worth noting.

Getting one of each: average number of wins needed is 12.63, maximum in 10k tests was 61.

Getting 5 of each: average number of wins needed is 44.65, maximum in 10k tests was 105.

Getting 10 of each: average number of wins needed is 80.45, maximum in 10k tests was 169.

Removing the daily lotto amounts. It means you need ~65 wins on average in 2 weeks, or ~32 wins per week, which amounts to 4.6 per day (which jumps to 5 or 6 if you can't play a day or 2 in the week.
This seems far too high, especially as we are talking about wins here, not games, and also on average, and by definition there will be players who have worse luck than this average.

While the 5 of each is more reasonable, even that's quite excessive with over 2 wins per day on average required.

IMO. That's way too many wins required over such a short period of time.

My horribly written C++ code for this if anyone is interested (or to notice if I made an error)

Code: Select all
#include <iostream>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>
using namespace std;

int test(int t)
{
    int a =0, b=0, c=0, d=0, e=0, r=0, n = 0;


    while(a < t or b < t or c < t or d < t or e < t)
    {
        n++;
        r = rand() % 6;
        //cout << a << " " << b << " " << c << " " << d << " " << e << endl;
        if (r == 0)
            a++;
        else if (r == 1)
            b++;
        else if (r == 2)
            c++;
        else if (r == 3)
            d++;
        else e++;
    }

    return n;
}
int main()
{
    srand (time(NULL));
    int total = 0;
    int max = 0;
    int result[10000];
    for (int i = 0; i < 10000; i++){
        result[i] = test(10); % number in here was changed between 1, 5, and 10
        total += result[i];
        if (result[i] > max)
            max = result[i];
    }
    cout << max << endl;
    cout << total/10000.0;
    return 0;
}
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby gadu » Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:31 pm

It is unreasonable. It's one reason I'm giving out free wins this week. He also wants you to spend $30 on the box.
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby GonFreeces31 » Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:23 pm

imortal12233 wrote:I decided to Run a Monte Carlo test for the egg collection, to see just how bad the situation is.

Wait, how did you get the chance of getting an egg per win?
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby Icyglare » Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:26 pm

GonFreeces31 wrote:Wait, how did you get the chance of getting an egg per win?


He assumed that it is 1/6 of not getting an egg from a win because there isn't enough data to figure out the rate, which sounds about right I think. I keep getting nonegg things (not complaining but) I still want that renally 1-3-2-12-6
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby GonFreeces31 » Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:55 pm

Oh duh, my bad. The sad thing is I bet that's a conservative estimate the actual rates are probably worse...
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby imortal12233 » Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:47 pm

The worst part is that as bad as the average is. Some will have it worse (not saying half because I think the average is actually higher than the median, but too lazy to check*).

Buying a box does help, but each box is only the same as about 12 wins (by the assumptions above). You still need to grind a lot unless you choose to buy 3+ boxes.

*checked. Median is ~78.5
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby hexagram » Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:27 pm

I think getting 5 of each is a better thing to aim for as the 4/5star 150 gran/300gran at 5 of each is much better compared to the added ex 30 gran for double the work.

Normal treasure is sufficiently greater than normal and higher rarity most 2 star as opposed to 1 star to it itself encourage certain players to play extra just for the normal treasure while effectively ignoring eggs.
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Re: Easter Egg Collecting

Postby imortal12233 » Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:14 pm

Even the 5 requires too many games. You have about 25% chance of needing more 50 or more wins (sorted and selected value that was 1/4 of the way from the top) for that. Discounting lotto assuming it's done every day gives 35 wins. At 50% win rate, that still leaves 5 games every day for both weeks. If you get one box, it drops to 3.2 games per day.

The 50% is also misleading since, due to others aiming for sets of 10, players are more likely to use top files, and so beginners/free players are going to have a much harder time.
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