card chances

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card chances

Postby AshenPlanet » Tue Oct 07, 2008 4:48 pm

What are the chances of getting a 4 or 5 star rare?

I just bought 17 5-card boosters, and the highest I got was a 3 star uncommon.
If I bought a box instead (15 5-card packs), would that increase the chance to get a 4 or 5 star rare?

If that's the case, then it's definitely better to buy a box than 14 boosters.
I thought you had a chance to get the 4 or 5 stars in booster packs as well.
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Re: card chances

Postby Candi » Tue Oct 07, 2008 4:55 pm

I dont know the exact odds of a 4/5 star rare, I do know that in a box you are guaranteed 1 5 Star and 1 4 Star, at least. Sometimes you get a couple more 4 stars.
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Re: card chances

Postby AshenPlanet » Tue Oct 07, 2008 5:38 pm

That means it's definitely better to buy a box rather than boosters.
I'll have to remember that for next time (maynot be anytime soon, however).

Thanx for the info. ;th2
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Re: card chances

Postby ANIMEniac » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:57 pm

Well, a box is a guaranteed. Buying packs will always be a gamble. You can go out with no 4-5 or you can end up with multiple. I was never much of a good gambler myself.
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Re: card chances

Postby DanTheTimid » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:03 pm

Yeah, the system is set up so that their are some distribution restrictions, for lottery (1 card at a time) their are 0 restrictions so you could conceivably never pull anything higher then a 1 star no matter how many lottery cards you bought if you were unlucky (though at the same time you could argue its possible to never pull anything but 5 stars, it would just require nothing short of divine luck), for single packs the distribution system guarantees you can never get five 1 stars, your guaranteed at least one 2 star. A box guarantees you at least one 5 star, 4 star, and 3 star. I've never heard of anyone getting more then one 5 star but I did once get two 4 stars in a box, and you usually get several 3 stars (in fact the minimum for 3 stars might actually be higher then one but I don't know the exact value).

So again, if you want guaranteed high rarity cards, boxes are the way to go.
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Re: card chances

Postby Gauze » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:22 pm

Hmmm...so I guess Card Lottery can be any card from any deck in the game? I was wondering about that...I doubt I'll spend money on this game so I'll probably never get enough grans for a box or even a booster pack. I guess I'll just have to stick to Card Lottery.
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Re: card chances

Postby Candi » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:43 pm

It is quite possible to save your daily MM gran for a booster, it's what I do.
If you are patient.
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Re: card chances

Postby Gota » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:57 pm

so i just finally saved up for a pack, bought it, got 3 2 stars and 2 1 star

didn't even get a 3 star..

/wrist


personally, I've had more luck with lottery than packs... lol....which is very very weird =.=

i might just stick with lottery.... O_o



Maybe the packs should have a system where like when the 5 cards rarity adds up, it'll equal to 9 stars...

Example:
1 (5star) + 4 (1star)
1 (4star) + 1 (2star) + 3 (1star)
2 (3star) + 3 (1star)
1 (3star) + 2 (2star) + 2 (1star)
4 (2star) + 1 (1star) (at lesat this would have been better than the pack i got, not that it is much better @_@)
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Logress wrote:Gota: I just looked at your lottery logs... I officially declare you the most unlucky man on earth.
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Re: card chances

Postby Gauze » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:19 pm

Candi wrote:It is quite possible to save your daily MM gran for a booster, it's what I do.
If you are patient.


Possibly but it doesn't seem that doing card lottery is significantly worse off compared to a 5 card booster in terms of card rarity. Nothing seems to be guaranteed by getting a booster except I guess from which set the cards are from. Might be more useful later but I'm only level 7. Getting a shiny new card semi-regularly is the only reason I keep playing.
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Re: card chances

Postby Candi » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:29 pm

Gota wrote:Maybe the packs should have a system where like when the 5 cards rarity adds up, it'll equal to 9 stars...


The problem with this is it makes packs an wickedly better source of high rarity cards.
There are 1 way you can have a 5 Star in a pack that has rarities sum to 9. You have listed all possible ways to have rarities sum to 9, giving a total of 5.

So, on average, 1/5 packs contain a 5 Star.

Compare to current boxes: 1/15 packs contain exactly 1 5 Star.

Also note: recycle values. A pack costs 150 gran, the following are the recycle values of your suggestion:

1 (5star) + 4 (1star) = 450 gran
1 (4star) + 1 (2star) + 3 (1star) = 175 gran
2 (3star) + 3 (1star) = 75 gran
1 (3star) + 2 (2star) + 2 (1star) = 60 gran
4 (2star) + 1 (1star) = 45 gran

so, the average recycle value of a pack is: 161 gran, meaning you get a profit, on average, if you buy packs and recycle their contents.



Gauze wrote:Possibly but it doesn't seem that doing card lottery is significantly worse off compared to a 5 card booster in terms of card rarity. Nothing seems to be guaranteed by getting a booster except I guess from which set the cards are from. Might be more useful later but I'm only level 7. Getting a shiny new card semi-regularly is the only reason I keep playing.


If it's the shiny card that keeps you here, then keep at lottery.

Controlling the set your cards come from is a much more effective way of getting triplets of cards you need than just playing lottery on a whim and hoping. Rarely will you get a needed third out of lottery - you have a (as of right now) 1 / 200 chance of getting a card you want in lottery, compared to a pack which gets you a 1/100 chance, of course it's not close to that because 5 Stars are a lot less common than 1 /200, but just on the surface packs go a long way to boosting odds. Also, packs don't give you a pile of 1 stars, while lottery has the chance (and a good one) of dealing you 5 1 Stars.
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