by DanTheTimid » Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:31 pm
I've got to say for me the lottery has been the best bet since it became 10 gran. Its true I don't have 100% playset completion of 1* cards, but I have most, but the lottery still seems worth it because for 150 gran I get 15 tries, even if I only get say 1 ** I need and 2 ** I don't, plus 12 *, then I recycle all the extras for 80 gran and try 8 more times, this time maybe I get 0 ** but I get a *** and a * I need, then I recycle the remaining gran for 30 and get 3 more tries, maybe get a ** but nothing I need, so I try again with my remaining gran, 2 more tries. And now I only get * and none i needed so I recycle again and play 1 last time and bam, I get a * but its a * I needed! I got a ***, **, and two * I needed. From a pack I might not even get a *** at all and the odds that I got a ** and * I actually needed are very low since I only got 4-5 tries total. In my above example I had 29 lottery tries.
Now as more and more sets come out and the cards I actually need from the old sets get smaller and smaller I think eventually the 10 gran lotto will become a bad deal for me, I'd be better off just going straight after the new sets packs or boxes (I'm a fan of boxes for that extra pack and other then set 3 for that guarenteed *****) but even now as I near complete sets of all the low rarity cards, the recycling retries I get seem to still be getting more *** or higher rarities then I was getting for the same amount of gran invested in packs and boxes.
It seems, and this is just a rough estimate mind you, that you get ** every 8 tries, *** every 25 tries, **** every 70 tries, and ***** every 120 tries.
That seems like alot of tries but using those numbers lets assume you have every * and ** in the game already but you play the lotto anyway instead of buying packs. Again rough estimating on average you get a ***** every 15 packs (or about 1 per box), a **** every 10 packs(at least one per box, some times 2), a *** every 2 packs (7 per box)
You've got 2250 gran, enough to buy 15 packs or a boxes worth of packs.
You play the Lotto 225 times instead.
By my estimates you pull 9 ***, 3 ****, and 1 ***** (probably two but I'm assuming your unlucky). You then recycle all the left overs, 28 ** and 184* for a total of 1200 gran and play 120 more times. You get 1 more *****, 1 more ****, and 4 more *** (again each value assuming you get unlucky). You recycle the remaining 15 ** and 99 * giving you 645 gran and 64 more tries. If we use the remainders from the previous tries we should pull 1 *****, 1 ****, and 3 ***.
Ok I'm going to stop here cause you get the point but you'd probably still get atleast 1 more *** out of it that I'm going to ignore. Based just on these numbers already you've gotten 16 ***, 5 ****, and 3 ***** !!! All for the price of a single box worth of packs! Thats compared to 7 ***, 1 ****, and 1 *****.
Now its true I pulled those numbers out of the air based on a very small sample (my own experiences) of the lottery, but if my numbers are even close to correct, do to recycling you can see that even after you complete your collection of low rarity cards the lotto still offers you more chances at the high rarity cards. I'd say the lotto is the way to go unless you've completed almost all of the previous sets and its just the newest set cards you want, that is to say the lottos always GREAT for new players, but does eventually lose its usefulness to long time players with large card collections, but then this thread is for still relatively new players.
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