Hero to Zero: How to transition to Folrart from Crest

[DanTheTimid]

I hate to keep saying it but I REALLLLLY wish the GMs could just give us some estimates that are less rough then "the odds of getting anything over a ** are really low".

If I take your results into account I'd say maybe the numbers are more like

Every 8 is a **, every 32 is a ***, every 100 is a ****, and every 150 is a *****

That would still mean you got pretty dang unlucky on the **** but the other numbers are much more reasonable. It would lower the numbers on my previous post a little bit but the numbers should still come out to being significantly better then what you'd get out of box or a box worth of packs.

Of course if you want to get really technical you could point out the extra packs you could buy with the recycling of the * and ** from the packs and how that affects the odds, but you'd only have about a third of the gran after recycling since your getting about 1/3 as many total cards via buying packs/boxes as opposed to using the 10 gran lotto. That means you'd probably only have enough left for 2 more packs, so basically just one more *** and some extra pocket change in gran.

[luckysvn777]

True.

Considering I want mostly 2 and 3 stars right now on my "wishlist" (except Renally, but let's not press odds), lottery seems like the better option.

But then if you factor in the fact that most of the cards I want happen to be set 2, with a few set 3 and no set 1's, that changes the odds even further as to which the better choice is.

Initially, the lottery is undoubtedly the best option right now... its when you start trying to get some 2 and 3 stars to improve files after your first lottery run or two where the choice gets a bit more complicated

[DanTheTimid]

Taking away all my fancy statistics and just looking at things simply the advantage the lottery gives you over packs if you want specific cards is that it gives you 3 chances at getting the card you want for every 1 chance a pack gives you (15 lotto tries for every 5 pack cards)

Even if the cards you want are all from the same set, with only 3 sets available right now if your after a * or a ** I think the lotto is absolutely worth it, you give yourself about the same odds of getting the cards you want as you would from a pack (3 times the tries but around 3 times the total card pool) while also ended up with a bunch of cards from the other sets that you can either keep if you happened to want them just not as much, or recycle to get even more tries still at getting the cards you really want. Once we get a fourth set things that won't be the case anymore, and of course if you want *** or higher rarities the odds still aren't immediately clear so its not clear whats the better buy, but if you only want ones from a specific set packs probably are still the better buy.

The fact you want ** and *** puts you in a tough situation, with out knowing the true numbers on the ***s from the lotto I can't say for sure but I'd probably say packs is your best bet to get exactly what you want.

[luckysvn777]

Haha, and now the lottery suddenly seems to want to be extra lucky to me right now.

300 gran spent, and I already have one 5 star, two 4 stars, and a 3 star.

Great SS ones as well.

But none of the two/three stars I want... but I still have 2100 gran to go.

Except I did get a Slyph at least

[StormWhisper]

Well one thing about the lottery vs Packs. If you are looking for a specific card, you have to remember that the lottery pulls from every available card whereas a pack will pull from only that set. (Now.. given the hell I went through to get my 3rd Foltrat Guardian from packs or Lottery....) You get 'less' chances with packs but it's also a narrower pool to draw from.

Lottery is better for finding a specific 1* IF you're dumping a lot of gran into it. (990 tends to be good). Packs are more efficient if you wouldn't mind more 3-5* from that set.

StormWhisper

[DanTheTimid]

Well one thing about the lottery vs Packs. If you are looking for a specific card, you have to remember that the lottery pulls from every available card whereas a pack will pull from only that set. (Now.. given the hell I went through to get my 3rd Foltrat Guardian from packs or Lottery....) You get 'less' chances with packs but it's also a narrower pool to draw from.

Lottery is better for finding a specific 1* IF you're dumping a lot of gran into it. (990 tends to be good). Packs are more efficient if you wouldn't mind more 3-5* from that set.

StormWhisper

Not necessarily, lets say you have only 300 gran, thats 2 packs, lets say from those 2 packs you on average pull one 3*,three 2*, and six 1*, that seems pretty reasonable to me based on all the packs I've opened. That means if theres a specific 1* you want and the set its in has 40 1*s like most sets, that means you have a 6/40 or 3/20 or 15% change of pulling what you want.

Now lets say you use the lottery. Thats 30 initial tries. On average you'll probably get one 3*, four 2*, and 25 1*. Thats 25/120 (technically right now its out of 100 cause set 3 had only 20 1*s but you get the point) or 5/24 or about 21%.

Your odds are STILL actually much better to get that specific 1* from the lottery then packs even if you spend less. But wait, theres more, with packs if you didn't get the card you want your done, your not likely to be able to recycle enough to get another pack, but with the lottery if you even just recycle all your 1*s thats 12 more tries. Now its more like 37/120 or 31% chance of getting the 1* you want. Still didn't get it, good news, you've got 6 more tries, so 43/120. Still didn't get it, 4 more tries so 47, still didn't get it then 2 more tries so 49, still didn't get it 1 more try.

What this all means is the lotto, even assuming you only recycle your 1*s and don't pull anything but 1*s after your initial pull, will give you a 50/120 chance of getting the 1* you want, or about a 42% chance from lotto compared to packs 15% chance!!!

Those numbers aren't perfect but you can see the point, it doesn't matter how much gran your dumping in, if you want a specific 1*, the lotto currently is ALWAYS better. As more and more sets are released however that may change because the lotto pool will keep growing, but right now that's the way things stand.

[darklogos]

added new link.

[Escaflowne]

Although packs draw from a smaller pool of cards. Drawing 3 times more cards from the lottery not only has good odds against packs, it also provides more cards to be recycled and redraw with (when you already have 3 or more in the case of spamming soulcards).

It's like an accurate single-shot rifle with expensive rounds vs a less accurate automatic submachinegun with cheaper rounds both aiming for an elusive target. History proves volume is better in most cases.

[darklogos]

After testing the lotto 4 seperate occasions with my own gran under the 10 gran lotto system I am not convinced it is a sound investment. I think it only serves the starting player build up their card pool fast. If you are paid or free, if you are new then the lotto is worth it. Knowing the odds doesn't change sampling. Out of the 4 separate occasions I only got 1 5star. The first time I spent 200 gran and got nothing above a 1 star. The second time 300 gran and got 1 3star. The fourth time i spent 400 gran nothing above a 2 star. The last time i spent 600 gran and got 1 5star and 2 4stars. One of the 4 stars I had which allowed me to recycle and actually get the 5 star I won. So over 200 tries to break the 4star wall is not practical for the long term.

[InigoMontoya]

I've only done the lotto one time. I spent 990 and got 91 one stars. The other eight cards were two and three stars.