Hero to Zero: How to transition to Folrart from Crest

[Scilin]

with over 2000 draws I recieved like 12 5 stars according to lucky iczer

[Escaflowne]

85% to be a *
If not a *, 66.666% to be a **
If neither, 80% to be a ***
None of those? 66.666% to be a ****
Dodge all that, and you got a *****

Does it really work that way?
Basing from how small the number of active players in Alteil, if the rate by which rare cards are obtained is fixed, there is a chance that a day may pass without anyone winning a 5-star card - but that is not the case. Everyday, some people do win 5-star cards. I think when a rare card will come out is already predetermined, or the rate is calculated dynamically (similar to Pseudo Random Distribution) and adjusts the rate depending on certain set parameters (like the number of draws in proportion to the number of active users or some other parameters). At least, if I were the one in charge, that's what's I'd do to balance game economy with what players want.

BTW:
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[Xuande]

No, I am simply guessing given the data I have, plus personal experience. If it helps, I use those numbers to help determine whether I am better off buying packs or lottery cards.

Basing it off hidden, non-random parameters is like rigging the game - it shouldn't take place when people are spending real cash, unless it is either announced or an upgrade. Random parameters, of course, are fine.

[darklogos]

http://www.alteil.com/forum/index.php?f ... c&start=10

Read that. Lupos says how the distribution works. The card is a random generator based partially on time of day and other factors down to the millasecond according to him.

[Xuande]

That simply states how many numbers are randomly generated, using their server's clock as the seed for the generator. I am a programmer myself, so that isn't really news to me. It doesn't make any claims as to their distribution, though.

[darklogos]

That simply states how many numbers are randomly generated, using their server's clock as the seed for the generator. I am a programmer myself, so that isn't really news to me. It doesn't make any claims as to their distribution, though.

My point is that timer is set so that rares are harder to get. They also say that when the lowered it to 10 gran that the odds where no longer in the favor of getting high rarity.

[Cotillion]

That simply states how many numbers are randomly generated, using their server's clock as the seed for the generator. I am a programmer myself, so that isn't really news to me. It doesn't make any claims as to their distribution, though.

My point is that timer is set so that rares are harder to get. They also say that when the lowered it to 10 gran that the odds where no longer in the favor of getting high rarity.

if what lupos posted there is perfectly accurate then what Alteil uses is really a psuedo-random RNG. Time of day even down to millisecond has been shown to be not the most effective RNG that computers can generate (although it is the easiest and most cost effective way to emulate a true RNG). I can find comp sci articles to link if I really need to.

The flaw lies in how the psuedo-random seed numbers are generated and how continually storage of seed numbers actually operates.

I know from my own experience that getting 4 Light Chaser Advents in a row when buying 4 boxes right in a row is far more likely due to psuedo-random computer gen RNG flaws than it is due to statistical outliers in random sequences.

I am a programmer myself,

Out of curiousity, have you read SICP?

[Xuande]

SICP?

Although I have a fair bit of recreational programming experience (coded many minor games from scratch, have written mods/mutators/maps/new game modes for others, plus some practical coding such as email filtering), I did not finish getting a degree for it in college. Had to drop halfway through due to severe illness at the time, and they cut my scholarship money as a result. So I'm not very well read when it comes to programming.

And yeah, all forms of RNG have their flaws. Time-seeded is just the most commonly used for simplicity's sake (and since many programming languages have that form built in already).

[Harion]

lottery is good if you're just building card pool
so it doesn't matter if you get * or ** or even ***
it all helps in growing your collection

it gets harder though as your collection grows
and as alteil expansions grow
that's where packs and boxes come in
to minimize randomness and increase your chances of getting the cards you want

so my take is, keep on doing lottery until you fill out most of your * and **
then move on to boxes and packs to look for *** and up

of course if i'm the alteil developer
i'd code my RNG a different way
but that's going into the realm of conspiracy
and i'd just keep mine to myself since it's really stupid

and really *gasp* (ominous whisper) possible

lol

just enjoy the game
and take whatever luck gives you
i'm used to bad luck (like fellana)
so it doesn't dent my spirit very bad

[Gota]

IMO, since you'd fill up all the 1 and 2 stars anyway....

What I suggest to new players usually is this:

Lotto all your gran if and only if you will not spend a lot of $ consistently on this game.
Box and packs if you know you will invest in this game, in huge amounts.