by AngelicDeath » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:23 pm
Hi all,
Ok back to what i was alluding to earlier. Analyzing this as I would an engineering problem lets take some assumptions.
1). Overall recycle rate on hyper up lotto is 60%. ( based on last hyper lotto result user posted pulls)
2). Hyper lotto pull costis 20 gran
3) 1 set card ( 1 of each card ina set say Final confrontation) equals 28430 gran or roughly 29 usd.
Given the above assumptions let us say that there are 4 winners of a full set card per 10,000 pulls or 1/2500. 10,000 pulls in hyper rarity lotto is the equivilant to 2000 usd so not un reasonable in a weekend - i would hope. I really hope it is double or triple this amount but hat would deflate the number i am about to crunch.
Therefore,
1 set = 2840 gran( 1 of each card in a set)
4 in 10,000 is thus 11360 gran
10,000 pulls at 20 gran per pull is 200,000 gran or roughly 2000 usd.
At 60 % recycle rate pnthat number pulls is 120,000gran plus the 4 set cards given out at 11360 gran for a total of 11360 granover 200,000 gran. This equates to a 65% recycle rate overall.
Sorry not cool. Giving out 4 full set cards out of 10,000 pulls at a normal hyper rarity rate of 60% ups it by 5 %. If it is lower than this it is possible an i will rework the numbers based on5000 pulls but realistically is 5000 pulls ina huge hyper lotto weekend real? I would hope they had like 30,000 to 50,000 pulls or like 5000 usd invested to them for that weekend. Really. 4 winners doesn't sound like much when it is put into perspective.
I don't wantto rainon your parade and i hope you guys earn back all you invest and more but i cannot stand by and just watch the past repeat itself in the present and future without chiming in. It is insulting otherwise.
AD
Nought's had, all's spent, Where our desire is got without content;'Tis safer to be that which we destroy Than by destruction dwell in doubtful joy.
Ne Obliviscaris